AMHERST ? University of Massachusetts point guard Chaz Williams said he isn?t thinking about the NCAA tournament. Last year, he got his hopes up. This year, he?s not worrying about it. Every game is important, he says.
Coach Derek Kellogg won?t talk about it, and it's hard to blame him. Coaches and players are right to take the ?one game at a time? approach because that?s all they can control.
That doesn?t mean the rest of the world should turn a blind eye to the big picture of the Minutemen?s NCAA at-large prospects.
With seven regular-season games remaining plus the Atlantic 10 tournament, it?s easy to say it?s too early to call games Thursday at Virginia Commonwealth and Saturday vs. Temple ?make or break.?
Here?s the fact of the matter: When supporters look back at this season two months from now, barring an A-10 championship, they?re going to point to this week as the tipping point.
Take a look at the landscape as of Tuesday afternoon:
UMass is a respectable 16-6. At 6-3, it?s in a three-way tie for fourth in the logjam that is the A-10.
Its RPI is 51 according to ESPN ? nothing to shake a stick at, but nothing to shout about from the rooftops either.
The Minutemen have no resum?-killing losses (though George Washington at home is dangerously close if the Colonials tank down the stretch), but have just one win out of 16 games against teams in the hunt for an at-large bid ? a 1-point victory at La Salle.
This week, they have the chance to triple that total against teams that both ESPN?s Joe Lunardi and CBS? Jerry Palm have in their current fields of 68.
Marquee road wins do wonders for tournament resum?s, but calling UMass? Jan. 30 victory over the Explorers ?marquee? is debatable.
There would be no debate about a win in Richmond, Va., Thursday. All the ingredients are there: big-name opponent, big-name coach, one of the nation?s most infamously raucous crowds and a national-television audience on CBS Sports Network.
It?s not exactly likely. It would be a huge upset, in fact, if the Minutemen go to the Siegel Center and calm Shaka Smart?s ?havoc.?
But miss this chance to pick up that statement road win and forever hold your peace ? remaining games at St. Bonaventure, Xavier and Rhode Island aren?t going to have this kind of flash with the selection committee when March 17 rolls around.
Realistically, Saturday?s game against Temple is far more gettable. UMass is expecting a big crowd for an old rival it?s playing in conference for the final time.
A home game UMass will likely be favored in, though, doesn?t carry the same cachet as a win at VCU would. A loss at VCU and a win against the Owls make the March 7 home finale against Butler an absolute must-win for any hope of an at-large bid ? and even that might not be enough.
With opportunity comes risk ? two wins this week put the Minutemen in prime position, but zero puts them virtually out of contention. A split ? depending on how it happens ? leaves them with a lot of work to do and dwindling time to do it.
So strap yourselves in, UMass fans. The clock is ticking.
As far as an at-large bid is concerned, this is crunch time.
Source: http://www.masslive.com/umassbasketball/index.ssf/2013/02/umass_basketball_headed_for_nc.html
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